Congestion charges for London motorists: will it help or hinder?

William Poster, IRIS Consulting’s transport consultant, discusses whether the London Mayor’s proposals for introducing congestion charges for private motorists entering the central area of London will produce any benefits which outweigh the costs.

The elected Mayor of Greater London, Ken Livingstone, plans to introduce a new daily charge of £5 for private motorists entering a defined zone in central London.

This defined zone is indicated on the map (click to open the full-size version).

Anyone familiar with commuter flows in London will immediately notice that the proposed charge zone is a relatively small area. For example it does not include exclusive Belgravia – the favoured location of many overseas embassies and the neighbourhood reported to be where Bob Kiley, Ken Livingstone’s Transport Commissioner, has his London home.

Other exclusive central areas such as Knightsbridge, Kensington and Notting Hill are outside the zone whereas some far less busy and less exclusive areas south of the river (around Waterloo, Southwark and Lambeth) are included. It appears that boundaries have been drawn with as much a view to placating political opposition from well-heeled local residents and Conservative controlled local councils in Westminster and Kensington & Chelsea than for containing traffic flows.

Because of this the boundary of the charge zone excludes some major rail stations – such as Victoria, Paddington, Euston, King’s Cross/St Pancras, but includes Waterloo station and most of the main line stations serving the City of London’s financial business area (such as Liverpool Street, Cannon Street, Fenchurch Street).

Also anyone familiar with travelling in and across London will recognise that the proposed charge zone has - until the recently introduced "bus only" lanes and major road works - had relatively fast-flowing and less congested roads than many of the areas outside. The success of earlier traffic management schemes in the West End and City of London (such as one-way streets, phased traffic lights etc) has meant that the central area of London usually flows much more smoothly than traffic in other areas. Congestion is currently much worse in the London suburbs than in the centre. Someone trying to motor from Heathrow, or Harrow, to say, Southgate or Tottenham would find it takes far longer than travelling to the centre of London.

Experience will show what impact the congestion charges will have. But I predict the following:

• Property prices in Belgravia, Knightsbridge, Kensington, Notting Hill will get an extra fillip from being " just outside the zone"
• Car parking and road congestion will be exacerbated in those central areas outside the zone
• The companies located within the charge zone will seek to pass on this "location tax" to their customers
• The reduction in motor traffic will be hardly noticeable - after an initial drop immediately following introduction - as traffic volumes return to their natural levels
• In the wake of this "failure" with congestion charges pressure will grow for more radical and more environmentally and commercially effective solutions- such as a pedestrian zone – which is likely to be centred on the Soho/Covent garden area.

So the proposed congestion charges for the central zone as defined does not tackle the real congestion problem in London. The charge zone is drawn in such a way as to exclude the areas where road congestion is most severe.

Fundamentally the use of the private car for getting around London has a huge competitive advantage while the public sector transport alternatives are in such a state of chaos and mismanagement. The level of charges would have to be set at several times higher than the proposed £5 and the charge zone expanded considerably for it to have any appreciable impact on motor traffic levels. And if that were to happen many commercial enterprises in London would start to move elsewhere – not necessarily to other parts of London but more likely to green field sites in the south-east.

That prospect of substantial job losses in London should make the GLA and TfL policy-makers pause for thought. Congestion is the price cities pay for being vibrant, economically active and successful. Liverpool does not have a traffic congestion problem – or even a "rush hour". Is that the vision which the Mayor of London has for the capital city?

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